What to know
- CFA's mission is to harness cutting-edge data analytics to improve response to public health emergencies.
- CFA develops infectious disease forecasts, models, simulator tools, and risk communication products for public health decision-makers.
Modeling and Forecasting
CFA advances forecasting and outbreak analytics to help support public health decision making and strengthen national security. We are developing disease forecasting, modeling, and simulation tools for public health decision makers to better prepare and respond to outbreaks, as well as seasonal respiratory disease.
Insights for Respiratory Virus Season
CFA provides insights and products to support planning and response to the respiratory virus season, including an annual seasonal outlook with scenario modeling, current COVID-19, influenza, and RSV epidemic trends at the national, state and local level, and short-term ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 and RSV hospital admissions and ED visits.
Responding to Outbreaks
CFA uses a variety of qualitative and quantitative tools to support outbreak responses at CDC, including qualitative risk assessments, outbreak scenario assessments, and a variety of outbreak modeling approaches. These have been applied to a wide range of infectious disease outbreaks, including Andes virus, Ebola, H5N1, mpox, Marburg, and measles.
Working with health departments
CFA works with state, tribal, local, and territorial health departments to support decision-making through the use of models, forecasts, and reports. We also work with key public health organizations to understand the needs of public health professionals, share information, collect feedback, and provide educational opportunities.
Educational resources
CFA’s Modeling Handbook is designed for public health practitioners who are interested in using modeling for decision-making or interpreting the output of mathematical models without having to read a textbook. CFA has also compiled a collection of online courses and learning resources designed to build familiarity with infectious disease modeling, forecasting, risk communication, and their application to public health decision-making in our Learning Resources page.
Outlooks
CFA's Respiratory Disease Season Outlooks are routine assessments that assist decision-makers with public health preparedness for the respiratory virus season. These assessments use expert judgment, historical data, and modeling to describe a range of scenarios for potential burden of COVID-19, influenza and RSV.
Risk Assessments
CFA uses a range of quantitative and qualitative techniques to support public health response and strengthen national security. When quantitative data are limited, we provide qualitative risk assessments to rapidly assess the current public health implications of an outbreak. Risk is assessed for the general U.S. population and specific populations at higher risk or of importance to public health practitioners or decision-makers.
Scenario Assessments
CFA uses a range of quantitative and qualitative techniques in our assessments to support public health response. Outbreak scenario assessments are designed to assess what could occur in the coming weeks to months of an outbreak. While these methods are designed to be used early in an outbreak, when information is limited, they may be updated over time if the situation changes. These assessments may also incorporate modeling insights, where appropriate.
Behind the Model
CFA's Behind the Model is a web series sharing the behind-the-scenes work of CFA and partners in generating disease forecasts, models, simulator tools. In this series, we offer a deeper explanation of the methods and how our work connects to practical applications for public health practitioners, healthcare providers, and the public. We also publish more technical reports on model methods and results in technical briefs.
Publications
Publications document and disseminate CFA's scientific contributions to advance modeling and forecasting for outbreak preparedness and response. Publications make CFA’s methods and findings accessible to the broader public health and scientific community – enabling collaboration, cross-validation, and continuous improvement of predictive tools and methodologies. The rigorous peer-review process gives us important ideas and feedback from other experts as well as fostering transparency and credibility, leading to enhanced adoption of our innovative approaches.
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