Outbreak Scenario Assessments

What is an Outbreak Scenario Assessment?

CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics conducts outbreak scenario assessments to assess what could occur in the coming weeks to months of an outbreak. For each scenario assessment, we consider two or more scenarios of what could occur and identify indicators that broadly help to determine what scenario is most likely to occur. To develop scenarios, we consider insights from previous outbreaks of the disease, the current state of the outbreak, and the potential role of public health interventions in the outbreak. We also incorporate modeling insights to highlight key sources of uncertainty or address questions from public health practitioners or decision-makers. See our methods for more details.

CFA's outbreak scenario assessments inform CDC leadership, public health professionals, and partners engaged in planning and executing emergency response activities.